Most Pastors Confident About Church Longevity
A recent Lifeway Research study reveals that 94% of U.S. Protestant pastors believe their churches will remain active in a decade. However, only 78% strongly agree with that projection, hinting at underlying uncertainty. Executive Director Scott McConnell noted that many pastors adopt renewal strategies and outreach to ensure long-term survival, drawing inspiration from century-old congregations thriving today.
Regional and Denominational Gaps Emerge
Confidence varies across geography and denomination. Pastors in the Northeast are most optimistic (97%), while their Western counterparts express slightly more doubt (91%). Interestingly, this optimism contradicts regional attendance trends, as the Northeast has the nation’s lowest monthly church participation rate at just 26%. Pentecostal pastors show higher confidence (97%) than Presbyterian/Reformed leaders (90%), suggesting that denominational culture may shape views on sustainability.
Small Churches Feel the Strain
Smaller congregations face greater vulnerability. Only 88% of pastors at churches with fewer than 50 attendees believe their church will last another ten years, and 8% explicitly expect closure. McConnell acknowledged that while small churches can endure, especially if debt-free, unexpected costs or pastoral vacancies often tip them toward disbandment.
Southern Baptist Convention Faces Declines
Despite planting nearly 1,000 new churches, the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) experienced a net loss of 292 congregations between 2022 and 2023. Lifeway data shows 900 churches closed or disbanded, while 260 left or were removed from the SBC. McConnell linked these declines to broader trends, including population aging and increasing religious disaffiliation.
Church Planting Struggles to Offset Closures
Across Protestant denominations, closures continue to outpace new church plants. In 2019, an estimated 4,500 churches closed versus 3,000 launched. Among the SBC congregations that shuttered, 83% ceased operations entirely. Others merged, became satellite campuses, or were reclassified. Even with a slight drop in 2023 closures compared to 2022, the data underscores the difficulty of maintaining net growth.
Source:
Few Protestant Pastors Believe Their Churches Will Close Soon
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